Compute Cost Curve Electricity-only · Capacity-weighted · exploratory

An Exploratory Global Compute Cost Curve

How far can cheap power carry China in the AI race?

The two curves

One curve uses the same NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 technology everywhere. The other models export-control restrictions by assuming China uses Huawei CloudMatrix384, while other regions use GB200 NVL72. CloudMatrix384 is estimated to require 2.5× as much electricity for the same amount of dense-BF16 compute.

The curves use capacity estimates for data centers operational by December 31, 2025, and electricity prices effective during 2025.

Scope: These curves show selected regional estimates, not a complete global inventory. Only capacity with a usable electricity-price input is plotted, and prices mix public tariffs with industrial averages. Read the full methodology and limitations.

Reproduce and inspect

Sources and methodology